Mahomes vs. Lawrence: The Rematch

Taking a deeper look at the QB's headlining the Chiefs Jaguars game

Patrick Mahomes is likely on his way to the second MVP of his career for the way he played in 2022. He is the elder statesman in the AFC playoffs and gives the team a chance to win no matter the opponent. Mahomes is also likely to have more of his weapons at his disposal this time around except perhaps Mecole Hardman.

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Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes since Week 11 (including playoffs) Lawrence Mahomes W-L 7-1 7-1 Comp% 66% 67% TD-INT 16-6 16-5

Trevor Lawrence is now 41-0 in his career on Saturday dating back to his high school career. He is 2-0 in the NFL including wins in the last two weeks. The question with Lawrence going into this game is which QB are you going to get? Against the Chargers, he threw four INTs in the first half, and against the Chiefs earlier this season he also struggled in the first half leading the Jaguars to a score right before the half.

When you look at the resumes of these two players coming out of college Lawrence was a highly touted number-one draft pick and two years into his career looks to be starting to hit his groove in the NFL. Mahomes however has taken his game to another level since joining the Chiefs and coach Andy Reid in the NFL.

The biggest question the Chiefs have to answer going into this game is whether they can match the intensity that this game is going to require. The playoffs take things up a couple of notches and the Chiefs have been pretty much idling through the last several weeks of the season doing just enough to win. The Jaguars on the other hand have had to be basically in playoff mode for over a month just trying to make the playoffs. Coming off their sixth straight win on Saturday against the Chargers they have a taste of playoff victory at this point so they know the toll this game could take.

Let’s take a quick look at each quarterback’s stats over the past 6 games before the playoffs and then we will also look into Lawrence’s stats against the Chargers.

Patrick Mahomes

Over the last 6 games of the season, Mahomes completed just over 68% of his passes for 277.5 yards per game, averaging 2 TDs per game and 8.07 yards per attempt. He also averaged .6667 INTs per game while taking 1.5 sacks per game. One of the areas Mahomes certainly improved in 2022 was his ability to not fumble the ball as he only had one fumble in the last 6 games and recovered it himself.

Trevor Lawrence

Over the last 6 games of the regular season, Lawrence averaged 66.4% completions for 243 yards a game, with 1.5 TD’s a game and yards per attempt of 7.23. Again just in the regular season Lawrence was averaging half of Mahomes INT’s per game at .333 and averaged a sack a game. One area Lawrence struggled over the last 6 games of the season was in fumbles as he had 4 in the last 6 games and lost two of them.

QB Comparison

When we look at how these two QBs fared against each other Mahomes has a distinct advantage the first time around. Mahomes’ completion percentage was a little lower than Trevor’s at 70% but his yards per attempt was almost 3 yards higher. Lawrence also ended up taking 5 sacks against the Chiefs but didn’t turn the ball over in the game.

Obviously, we have yet to discuss the playoff game against the Chargers. With the playoffs here the officiating may let the players play a little more than normal which should help Kansas City and their young DBs. This was certainly the case against the Chargers where a couple of pass interference calls were likely called in a regular season game. Trevor was 10/24 for 77 yards with 1 TD and 4 INTs in the first half against the Chargers. In the second half, he was 15 for 18 for 185 yards and 3 TDs, and no INTs as he took over the game.

Looking at the stats of both of these QBs Mahomes certainly has an edge which is expected as he is the likely MVP. On Saturday we get to find out which Trevor Lawrence shows up to play because if he starts the game anything like what he did against the Chargers the Chiefs should move on easily. If Pederson does what I expect and pulls out all the stops this could be a close game regardless and I expect one of these QBs will be driving down the field to win it in the 4th quarter.